Permanent board

AI Wars

Who’s ahead in foundation models and coding agents, tracked across several signals that often diverge. Desk ranks for US and international labs sit above Arena preference, OpenRouter volume, Reddit heat for coding tools, lab GitHub stars, App Store Productivity ranks, public changelog velocity, and longer-horizon Polymarket odds.

Scroll the charts for history. Open a lab card for the full analysis, or jump to the write-ups collected at the bottom of the page.

Current state

Desk ranking of who holds the field right now, split by US and international labs. Order is positioning + heat (0 to 100). Green dot means primary models are open-weight / self-hostable; red means primary models are closed (side experiments don’t count). Click a company for the full analysis, also listed below under Desk analyses.

United States

Updated

Frontier labs + the coding products riding them.

Positioning over time0 to 100
14365779100Jul 26Aug 2Aug 9Aug 16Aug 23Aug 29Aug 30

Hover for values · click legend to hide a series

  1. Anthropic0

    Read analysis

    Claude in Chrome hits GA and Anthropic pledges more Claude compute inside SpaceX-owned Cursor as OpenAI winds down.

    Positioning98
    Heat96

  2. OpenAI0

    Read analysis

    OpenAI winds down models for SpaceX-owned Cursor by Nov 12; Luna climbs to OpenRouter weekly #4 at ~6.75T.

    Positioning90
    Heat93

  3. SpaceX-1

    Read analysis

    OpenAI ends Cursor model supply by Nov 12; Anthropic doubles down while Cursor says OpenAI was ~5% of traffic.

    Positioning77
    Heat90

  4. Google0

    Read analysis

    Gemini 3.7 Flash holds OpenRouter weekly top ten at ~4.05T (#9); Productivity App Store #2 while Pro GA stays missing.

    Positioning59
    Heat82

  5. Meta0

    Read analysis

    Muse Spark Arena beachhead digests; Meta AI stays App Store top-five Productivity without a coding-agent Reddit row.

    Positioning41
    Heat72

  6. Microsoft+1

    Read analysis

    GitHub Copilot cloud agent lands in Slack and Teams public preview; Reddit still ~71K under M365 distribution.

    Positioning42
    Heat60

International

Updated

Usage and open-weight pressure from outside the US.

Positioning over time0 to 100
7305477100Jul 26Aug 2Aug 9Aug 16Aug 23Aug 29Aug 30

Hover for values · click legend to hide a series

  1. DeepSeek+1

    Read analysis

    Flash 0731 holds OpenRouter #2 at ~12.3T; pre-IPO funding talk near ~¥500B valuation adds a capital horizon.

    Positioning96
    Heat91

  2. Xiaomi0

    Read analysis

    MiMo-V2.5 holds OpenRouter weekly #3 at ~9.98T; volume seat intact as absolute tokens cool off last week’s spike.

    Positioning64
    Heat88

  3. Tencent-1

    Read analysis

    Hy3 slips again to OpenRouter weekly #5 at ~6.62T as Luna and free Nemotron take mid-board oxygen.

    Positioning73
    Heat74

  4. MiniMax-1

    Read analysis

    H3 open-weight beachhead keeps digesting; still no MiniMax row on OpenRouter’s weekly top ten.

    Positioning56
    Heat62

  5. Moonshot0

    Read analysis

    Kimi stays off OpenRouter’s weekly top ten; Databricks path and Arena preference ember already booked.

    Positioning51
    Heat65

  6. Z.ai+2

    Read analysis

    GLM 5.3 Flash climbs to ~4.62T OpenRouter weekly (#8) beside GLM 5.2 at ~3.11T (#10); utility floor keeps thickening.

    Positioning33
    Heat72

Coding agents

Subreddit weekly visitors as a community-heat proxy, tracked from July 2026. Share bar shows absolute mix; sparklines use per-tool scales so every line’s week-to-week shape is readable.

Share of weekly visitors

Proportional to latest snapshot · Aug 29, 2026

1.6M total
  • Claude Code754K45.8%
  • Codex378K23.0%
  • OpenCode CLI129K7.8%
  • OpenCode102K6.2%
  • Antigravity98K6.0%
  • Cursor95K5.8%
  • GitHub Copilot71K4.3%
  • Cline12K0.7%
  • Windsurf6K0.4%

Weekly visitors over time

Each sparkline uses its own scale so mid-pack moves stay readable. Hover to read any week. Pills are latest week-over-week change.

  1. Claude Coder/ClaudeAI
    754K−21K
  2. Codexr/CodexAI
    378K+5K
  3. OpenCode CLIr/opencodeCLI
    129K+7K
  4. OpenCoder/opencode
    102K+21K
  5. Antigravityr/antigravity
    98K
  6. Cursorr/cursor
    95K+1K
  7. GitHub Copilotr/GithubCopilot
    71K−3K
  8. Cliner/cline
    12K0
  9. Windsurfr/Windsurf
    6K−400

Desk-tracked estimates. Heat signal only, not seats or revenue.

Lab repos

Flagship GitHub projects from the tracked labs · Sep 11, 6:45 AM

App Store rank tape

US free Productivity chart for the main AI consumer apps — a consumer-heat signal that often diverges from Arena and API volume.

US App Store · Productivity

Free iPhone Productivity chart · Sep 11, 2026

  1. ChatGPT#1
    OpenAI · Overall #1
  2. Gemini#3
    Google · Overall #8
  3. Claude#4
    Anthropic · Overall #11
  4. Grok#7
    xAI · Overall #48
  5. Meta AI#15
    Meta
  6. Perplexity#35
    Perplexity
  7. DeepSeek#40
    DeepSeek
  8. Copilot—
    Microsoft

Productivity rank tape

Inverse rank score · US free Productivity chart

Sep 11, 2026
46607387100JulAugAugAugAugSepSepSep

Hover for values · click legend to hide a series

Daily snapshots. Score = 101 − chart rank (higher is better). Outside the top 100 drops off.

Changelog velocity

How often labs publish — scraped from public RSS feeds and news sitemaps (Anthropic, xAI, and others). A shipping/comms proxy, not a quality score.

Posts per week

4-week rolling average · last 47 complete weeks

0481216OctDecJanMarAprJunAugAug

Hover for values · click legend to hide a series

Latest headlines

Most recent item per lab · through Sep 11, 2026

Comms / shipping proxy — OpenAI & Anthropic newsrooms are louder than Cursor's product changelog. Not weighted by importance. Lines are curved because the value is a 4-week mean, not a weekly reading, and each starts once its source covers a full window rather than reading as zero.

Prediction markets

Longer-horizon AI odds from Polymarket. Skips markets resolving within ~10 days · as of Sep 11, 2026.

polymarket.com
Resolves Jul 1, 2027
Anthropic IPO by __?
  1. December 31, 202689.0%
  2. December 15, 202685.5%
  3. November 30, 202683.5%
  4. November 15, 202677.5%
  5. October 31, 202658.5%

OpenRouter volume

Daily tokens · Jun 13–Sep 10

Sep 11, 2026
0638B1.28T1.91T2.55TJunJunJulJulAugAugAugSep

Hover for values · click legend to hide a series

OpenRouter rankings-daily. Prompt + completion tokens for the public top 50 each day.

Provider share

% of OpenRouter tokens · Jun 13–Sep 10

Sep 11, 2026
0.0%9.2%18%28%37%JunJunJulJulAugAugAugSep

Hover for values · click legend to hide a series

Share of daily OpenRouter token volume by provider.

Arena Elo

Weekly snapshots · current top models

Sep 10, 2026
14921498150415091515Jun 25Jul 9Jul 23Aug 6Aug 20Sep 10

Hover for values · click legend to hide a series

Weekly Arena text-leaderboard snapshots.

Live boards

Preference and API volume measure different races.

Arena Elo

Human preference · text

  1. claude-fable-51507
    Anthropic · 27K votes
  2. claude-opus-4-6-high1505
    Anthropic · 72K votes
  3. claude-fable-5.1-max1504
    Anthropic · 2.9K votes
  4. claude-opus-4-7-high1502
    Anthropic · 60K votes
  5. muse-spark-1.2 (xHigh)1499
    Meta · 3.2K votes
  6. claude-opus-4-61498
    Anthropic · 76K votes
  7. claude-opus-4-71494
    Anthropic · 61K votes
  8. gemini-3.8-flash-high1494
    Google · 5.1K votes

OpenRouter

API tokens · Sep 9

  1. hy43.25T
    tencent
  2. glm-5.3-flash1.95T
    z-ai
  3. deepseek-v4-flash1.62T
    deepseek
  4. gpt-5.6-luna1.27T
    openai
  5. mimo-v2.51.25T
    xiaomi
  6. gemini-3.8-flash653B
    google
  7. deepseek-v4-flash645B
    deepseek
  8. hy3571B
    tencent

Research on Perplexity

Board-shaped queries with cited answers. Opens on Perplexity.

perplexity.ai

Desk analyses

Full write-ups behind each company score, kept on the page for easy reading. Ranked by positioning + heat within region.

United States

#1 · San Francisco · positioning 98 · heat 96 · closed weight

Anthropic

Claude in Chrome hits GA and Anthropic pledges more Claude compute inside SpaceX-owned Cursor as OpenAI winds down.

Why the score moved

Positioning stayed at 98. On this board that number is strategic seat — preference, the products developers live in, capital, and reach — not a one-week traffic blip. Anthropic was already at the US ceiling after JetBrains/Claude Code possession and the Aug 19 agent-platform GA; this Sunday does not invent a higher ceiling.

What argued for heat: Claude in Chrome left pilot and went generally available on paid plans with autonomous browser actions behind a safety classifier 1. Shared memory across chat and Cowork shipped the day before 2. After OpenAI said it will wind down models in SpaceX-owned Cursor by Nov 12, Anthropic publicly committed to keep increasing Claude compute inside Cursor 3. Coding Reddit still crowns Claude Code at about 754K weekly visitors on the Aug 29 tape 4.

What argued against a positioning raise: Reddit cooled from ~775K (Aug 23) to ~754K, and there is no new frontier model receipt. Why +0/+2. Seat already maxed; the week is product surface + distribution politics, which is heat and reinforcement, not a new strategic floor.

  1. VendorClaude in Chrome generally available

    Aug 26: Claude in Chrome GA on paid plans with autonomous actions + safety classifier.

  2. VendorClaude memory across chat and Cowork

    Aug 25: shared, editable memory across chat and Cowork; sensitive topics off by default.

  3. NewsOpenAI Cursor cutoff and Anthropic Cursor compute reply

    OpenAI winds down Cursor models; Anthropic’s Tom Brown pledges more Claude compute in Cursor.

  4. DataCoding-tool Reddit weekly visitors

    Board snapshot Aug 29: Claude Code ~754K weekly visitors (still #1).

Signals: Claude Code Reddit still ~754K weekly (Aug 29). App Store Productivity Claude #3. Claude in Chrome GA (Aug 26) + shared chat/Cowork memory (Aug 25). Hours after OpenAI’s Cursor wind-down, Anthropic’s Tom Brown says Claude compute in Cursor will keep rising. Open weight: no.

Positioning 98 (flat): already the US ceiling — preference, Claude Code possession, and now browser-agent GA plus deeper Cursor distribution. A raise needs a frontier model step or a capital event; neither landed.

Heat 96 (+2 from 94): Chrome GA + Cursor-compute pledge outweigh soft Reddit week-over-week. Competitive cross-pressure: OpenAI’s Codex franchise still #2 community, but OpenAI just ceded Cursor mindshare narrative to Claude.

#2 · San Francisco · positioning 90 · heat 93 · closed weight

OpenAI

OpenAI winds down models for SpaceX-owned Cursor by Nov 12; Luna climbs to OpenRouter weekly #4 at ~6.75T.

Why the score moved

Positioning stayed at 90. OpenAI’s seat is default consumer product plus a coding-agent franchise and partner distribution — even when Claude wins preference and Chinese labs win cheap routed tokens. Last desk already held 90 through the Codex 20M story; this week’s fight is about one partner, not the whole install base.

What argued for a raise: GPT-5.6 Luna processed about 6.75T tokens on OpenRouter’s weekly board (#4), the top US closed name on that list 1. ChatGPT still owns App Store Productivity #1 2. The Cursor wind-down itself puts OpenAI in every AI-coding headline 3.

What argued against a bigger move or a cut: Cursor leadership says OpenAI models are only about 5% of Cursor traffic, and Anthropic is filling the narrative gap 3. Codex Reddit is roughly flat at ~378K 4. Why +0/+4. Structural seat holds; discourse and Luna volume are the heat story.

  1. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    Weekly window: GPT-5.6 Luna ~6.75T tokens (#4).

  2. DataUS App Store Productivity chart

    ChatGPT still Productivity #1 (and overall #1 on top-free chart).

  3. NewsOpenAI Cursor wind-down coverage

    OpenAI notifies SpaceX of Cursor model wind-down (Nov 12); Cursor says OpenAI is ~5% of traffic.

  4. DataCoding-tool Reddit weekly visitors

    Aug 29: Codex ~378K weekly visitors (#2 behind Claude Code).

Signals: OpenRouter weekly — GPT-5.6 Luna ~6.75T (#4, top closed US name). Codex Reddit ~378K. App Store ChatGPT Productivity #1 / overall #1. Cursor model contract wind-down announced with Nov 12 shutoff. Open weight: no.

Positioning 90 (flat): ChatGPT install base + Codex franchise still the US #2 seat. Cursor’s co-founder says OpenAI models are ~5% of Cursor traffic — real distribution loss, not a franchise hole. Astra-control narrative is politics, not a new product floor.

Heat 93 (+4 from 89): cutoff drama + Luna volume climb reverse last week’s post-20M cool-down. Cross-pressure: Anthropic takes the Cursor goodwill tape; Claude Code still doubles Codex on Reddit.

#3 · Hawthorne · positioning 77 · heat 90 · closed weight

SpaceX

OpenAI ends Cursor model supply by Nov 12; Anthropic doubles down while Cursor says OpenAI was ~5% of traffic.

Why the score moved

Positioning moved from 78 to 77. SpaceX’s seat here is Cursor IDE distribution plus owned compute and the Grok stack — already booked when the close landed. A raise needs a post-close usage or ship receipt. What arrived instead is a supplier fight.

What argued against holding or raising: OpenAI said it will wind down OpenAI models inside Cursor with a proposed Nov 12 shutoff, citing terms-of-service risk after the SpaceX change of control 1. That is a structural model-supply soft spot for an IDE that still routes some traffic to OpenAI.

What argued against a bigger cut: Cursor’s Michael Truell says OpenAI models are about 5% of Cursor traffic, and Anthropic publicly pledged to keep increasing Claude compute in Cursor 1. Cursor Reddit is roughly flat at ~95K while OpenCode lanes keep climbing 2. Why −1/+6. Seat nicks one point for supplier risk; heat is the story.

  1. NewsOpenAI Cursor wind-down and Anthropic reply

    Nov 12 OpenAI shutoff planned; Cursor cites ~5% traffic; Anthropic pledges more Claude compute.

  2. DataCoding-tool Reddit weekly visitors

    Aug 29: Cursor ~95K; OpenCode CLI ~129K; OpenCode ~102K.

  3. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    No Grok/Cursor-owned model in weekly top ten; heat is politics + IDE, not routed tokens.

Signals: Cursor Reddit ~95K flat; OpenCode CLI ~129K and OpenCode ~102K still climbing on already-tracked lanes. OpenAI Cursor contract wind-down (Nov 12). Anthropic pledges more Claude compute in Cursor. Open weight: no.

Positioning 77 (−1 from 78): IDE + owned compute + capital seat still intact, but losing a frontier-model supplier is a real distribution soft spot even if traffic share is small. Anthropic compute pledge and Grok-in-IDE already booked keep the cut to one point.

Heat 90 (+6 from 84): biggest US discourse spike of the week. Cross-pressure: Claude Code and Codex still dwarf Cursor on Reddit; OpenCode lanes keep eating community oxygen.

#4 · Mountain View · positioning 59 · heat 82 · closed weight

Google

Gemini 3.7 Flash holds OpenRouter weekly top ten at ~4.05T (#9); Productivity App Store #2 while Pro GA stays missing.

Why the score moved

Positioning stayed at 59. Google’s seat on this board is consumer distribution plus a workhorse model path — still without a Pro flagship GA. Last desk already raised on 3.7 Flash OpenRouter traction; this Sunday is digestion.

What argued for holding: Gemini 3.7 Flash still processed about 4.05T tokens on OpenRouter’s weekly board (#9) 1. Gemini remains App Store Productivity #2 2. Antigravity now has a tracked coding Reddit row at about 98K weekly visitors 3.

What argued against a raise: absolute Flash volume is roughly flat-to-slightly up versus last desk’s ~3.93T, but the model slipped from weekly #8 to #9 as GLM 5.3 Flash climbed, and there is still no Pro GA receipt. Why +0/−1. Seat holds; heat eases one point as other labs own the week’s headlines.

  1. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    Weekly: Gemini 3.7 Flash ~4.05T (#9).

  2. DataUS App Store Productivity chart

    Gemini still Productivity #2.

  3. DataCoding-tool Reddit weekly visitors

    Aug 29: Antigravity newly tracked ~98K weekly visitors.

Signals: OpenRouter weekly — Gemini 3.7 Flash ~4.05T (#9). App Store Productivity Gemini #2 / overall ~#16. Antigravity Reddit newly tracked ~98K. Arena — Flash present, not preference crown. Open weight: no.

Positioning 59 (flat): last desk’s +2 already priced routed Flash volume. Still no Pro GA. Consumer distribution + workhorse path is the seat; missing flagship is the soft spot.

Heat 82 (−1 from 83): Flash volume holds but Ox Alpha / Luna / MiMo take louder weekly oxygen. Cross-pressure: Anthropic Chrome GA and OpenAI Cursor fight dominate English-language discourse.

#5 · Menlo Park · positioning 41 · heat 72 · closed weight

Meta

Muse Spark Arena beachhead digests; Meta AI stays App Store top-five Productivity without a coding-agent Reddit row.

Why the score moved

Positioning stayed at 41. Meta’s live story is Muse Spark / Muse Code preference beachhead without community-scale coding Reddit. Last desk’s raise already priced Muse Spark’s Arena Text overall #4 print.

What argued for holding: Meta AI remains inside App Store Productivity’s top five 1. The Muse preference story is still on the board even as it digests 2.

What argued against a raise: no new Arena step, no coding-agent Reddit row among the desk’s tracked tools, and Muse Glimmer’s open-weight ship is already prior news 2. Why +0/−2. Seat holds; heat mean-reverts after the Arena week.

  1. DataUS App Store Productivity chart

    Meta AI still Productivity #5.

  2. DataAI Wars desk changelog / Arena tape

    Prior desk booked Muse Spark Arena Text #4; no new Meta coding Reddit row this window.

  3. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    No Muse/Meta model in weekly top ten this window.

Signals: Meta AI App Store Productivity #5 / overall ~#38. Prior desk — Muse Spark #4 Arena Text. No Meta coding-agent Reddit row among tracked tools. Muse Glimmer open-weight already prior-board. Open weight: no (closed Muse path on this board until Spark weights ship).

Positioning 41 (flat): last desk’s +3 already booked the Arena preference beachhead. Still no community-scale coding agent possession.

Heat 72 (−2 from 74): Arena spike cools as OpenAI/SpaceX and Anthropic Chrome own discourse. Cross-pressure: Claude Code / Codex Reddit lanes Meta does not have.

#6 · Redmond · positioning 42 · heat 60 · closed weight

Microsoft

GitHub Copilot cloud agent lands in Slack and Teams public preview; Reddit still ~71K under M365 distribution.

Why the score moved

Positioning moved from 41 to 42. Microsoft’s seat is distribution without a frontier model of its own. Last desk’s cut already priced the JetBrains share slide and soft Copilot Reddit. This week adds a distribution product receipt.

What argued for a raise: GitHub put Copilot cloud agent into Microsoft Teams and Slack as public previews — shared agent sessions that plan, investigate, and open PRs from the chat surfaces enterprises already use 12.

What argued against a bigger raise: Copilot Reddit is still about 71K weekly visitors and still trails every major coding-agent lane on the board 3. Copilot is absent from the App Store Productivity top chart this snapshot. Why +1/+3. Preview distribution is a structural nudge; heat recovers modestly without a community rebound.

  1. VendorGitHub Copilot in Microsoft Teams

    Aug 21: shared Copilot cloud-agent sessions in Teams public preview.

  2. VendorGitHub Copilot in Slack

    Aug 21: agentic Copilot experience in Slack public preview.

  3. DataCoding-tool Reddit weekly visitors

    Aug 29: GitHub Copilot ~71K weekly visitors.

Signals: GitHub Copilot Reddit ~71K (Aug 29). Copilot off App Store Productivity top 100 this snapshot. Slack + Microsoft Teams shared Copilot cloud-agent previews (Aug 21). JetBrains at-work slide already booked. Open weight: no.

Positioning 42 (+1 from 41): procurement + Azure + M365 seat thickens when the coding agent shows up inside the chat surfaces enterprises already live in — even in preview.

Heat 60 (+3 from 57): preview ship is real momentum; community tape still soft vs Claude Code / Codex. Cross-pressure: Anthropic and OpenAI own agent mindshare on Reddit.

International

#1 · Hangzhou · positioning 96 · heat 91 · open weight

DeepSeek

Flash 0731 holds OpenRouter #2 at ~12.3T; pre-IPO funding talk near ~¥500B valuation adds a capital horizon.

Why the score moved

Positioning moved from 95 to 96. DeepSeek’s international seat is the open-weight lab that wins the cheap-token war and, increasingly, looks like a capital-markets story. Last desk’s −1 priced losing weekly #1 to stealth Ox Alpha while Flash volume held.

What argued for a raise: Flash 0731 still processed about 12.3T tokens (#2) with a second Flash SKU at about 5.4T (#7) on OpenRouter’s weekly board 1. Separate reporting says a pre-IPO round near a ~500 billion yuan pre-money valuation (~US$74B) with a possible 2027 STAR Market debut is nearing close 2. Treat the fundraising figures as reported ranges, not audited filings.

What argued against a bigger raise: Ox Alpha still owns weekly #1 at about 20.7T, and MiMo remains on the podium 1. Why +1/+1. Capital horizon is a structural nudge; usage seat is stable, not expanding.

  1. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    Weekly: Flash 0731 ~12.3T (#2); Flash 0423 ~5.4T (#7); Ox Alpha ~20.7T (#1).

  2. NewsDeepSeek pre-IPO funding / 2027 listing talk

    Sources: ~¥500B pre-money valuation round (~¥50B raise) nearing close; 2027 STAR Market aim.

Signals: OpenRouter weekly — V4 Flash 0731 ~12.3T (#2) + V4 Flash 0423 ~5.4T (#7). Stealth Ox Alpha still #1 (~20.7T). Sources: pre-IPO round talk ~¥500B pre-money / ~¥50B raise, 2027 STAR listing aim. Open weight: yes.

Positioning 96 (+1 from 95): cost/speed + open-weight franchise recovers a point as capital-markets chatter thickens the strategic seat — without reclaiming weekly #1 from Ox Alpha.

Heat 91 (+1 from 90): dual Flash rows plus funding tape; MiMo still steals podium oxygen. Cross-pressure: Xiaomi #3 volume and Z.ai climbing Flash SKUs.

#2 · Beijing · positioning 64 · heat 88 · open weight

Xiaomi

MiMo-V2.5 holds OpenRouter weekly #3 at ~9.98T; volume seat intact as absolute tokens cool off last week’s spike.

Why the score moved

Positioning stayed at 64. Last two desks raised Xiaomi hard on MiMo’s OpenRouter surge. This Sunday asks whether the seat persists when the spike cools.

What argued for holding: MiMo-V2.5 still processed about 9.98T tokens and remains weekly #3 on OpenRouter 1. That is still a clear international volume seat above MiniMax/Moonshot/Z.ai.

What argued against another raise: absolute volume slipped from last desk’s ~10.8T print, and there is still no preference or coding-community tape to thicken the seat beyond routed tokens 12. Why +0/−3. Structural volume holds; heat mean-reverts after the spike.

  1. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    Weekly: MiMo-V2.5 ~9.98T (#3), down from last desk’s ~10.8T print.

  2. DataAI Wars desk changelog

    No Xiaomi coding Reddit row; seat remains OpenRouter volume.

Signals: OpenRouter weekly — MiMo-V2.5 ~9.98T (#3). Arena preference still mid-pack qualitatively. No Xiaomi coding Reddit row tracked. Open weight: yes.

Positioning 64 (flat): second consecutive desk already treated MiMo podium volume as structural. Holding #3 after a spike is persistence, not a new floor.

Heat 88 (−3 from 91): absolute tokens ease from ~10.8T; Ox Alpha / Flash / Luna take louder tape. Cross-pressure: DeepSeek dual Flash + Tencent Hy3 still in top five.

#3 · Shenzhen · positioning 73 · heat 74 · open weight

Tencent

Hy3 slips again to OpenRouter weekly #5 at ~6.62T as Luna and free Nemotron take mid-board oxygen.

Why the score moved

Positioning moved from 74 to 73. Tencent’s seat is usage plus WeChat distribution. Last desk already cut from 77→74 as Hy3 lost weekly #3. The slide continued.

What argued for a cut: Hy3 processed about 6.62T tokens and sits at weekly #5 on OpenRouter, behind Luna and just ahead of free Nemotron — down from last desk’s ~6.67T #4 and far from the prior ~8.56T #3 1.

What argued against a bigger cut: Hy3 remains a clear top-five international volume name, and there was no product failure — only share dilution 12. Why −1/−2. Usage seat softens another point; heat cools with the tape.

  1. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    Weekly: Hy3 ~6.62T (#5), continued slide from prior #3/#4 prints.

  2. DataAI Wars desk changelog

    No new Tencent newsroom launch; cut is routed-volume share.

Signals: OpenRouter weekly — Hy3 ~6.62T (#5). No new newsroom launch. Coding Reddit: none tracked. Open weight: yes.

Positioning 73 (−1 from 74): usage seat intact but another week of relative and absolute mass loss since the ~8.56T #3 peak. WeChat distribution still the strategic floor under the tokens.

Heat 74 (−2 from 76): quieter vs MiMo persistence and DeepSeek funding chatter. Cross-pressure: Luna #4 and Nemotron free #6 squeeze Hy3’s mid-board story.

#4 · Shanghai · positioning 56 · heat 62 · open weight

MiniMax

H3 open-weight beachhead keeps digesting; still no MiniMax row on OpenRouter’s weekly top ten.

Why the score moved

Positioning moved from 57 to 56. MiniMax’s seat is an open-weight beachhead plus residual video/agent narrative — not OpenRouter podium traffic. Nothing this week upgraded that seat.

What argued for a cut: OpenRouter’s weekly top ten still has no MiniMax row while peers (DeepSeek, Xiaomi, Tencent, Z.ai) keep printing tokens 1.

What argued against a bigger cut: the H3 open-weight beachhead is still real prior board, and absence from the weekly chart is not a product cancellation 2. Why −1/−3. Soft relative seat; heat cools in a quiet window.

  1. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    Weekly top ten: no MiniMax model row.

  2. DataAI Wars desk changelog

    H3 beachhead already booked; this week is digestion without a new ship.

Signals: OpenRouter weekly — no MiniMax row in top ten. H3 beachhead still prior-board digestion. Video/agent residual narrative quieter. Open weight: yes.

Positioning 56 (−1 from 57): open-weight claim without podium traffic softens another point as Z.ai’s dual GLM rows thicken the utility floor above MiniMax on the board metrics that travel.

Heat 62 (−3 from 65): quiet week vs MiMo/DeepSeek/Z.ai token tape. Cross-pressure: international oxygen concentrated in top-five OR names.

#5 · Beijing · positioning 51 · heat 65 · open weight

Moonshot

Kimi stays off OpenRouter’s weekly top ten; Databricks path and Arena preference ember already booked.

Why the score moved

Positioning stayed at 51. Last desk’s small raise was preference residue on Arena after Databricks was already booked. This week adds no new structural receipt.

What argued for holding: the Databricks distribution path and open-weight Kimi franchise remain on the board 1.

What argued against a raise: Kimi still does not appear in OpenRouter’s weekly top ten, and there is no fresh Arena print loud enough to move the seat 2. Why +0/−3. Seat holds; heat eases as volume labs dominate the tape.

  1. DataAI Wars desk changelog

    Databricks path already booked; no new Moonshot distribution receipt this window.

  2. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    Weekly top ten: no Kimi row.

Signals: OpenRouter weekly — no Kimi row. Databricks distribution path already booked. Arena Agent/Text preference residue qualitative only this window. Open weight: yes.

Positioning 51 (flat): open-frontier + WeChat-adjacent distribution seat unchanged. No token spike to justify another nudge.

Heat 65 (−3 from 68): preference ember cools without OR volume. Cross-pressure: Z.ai’s climbing Flash SKUs now look louder on the same utility board.

#6 · Beijing · positioning 33 · heat 72 · open weight

Z.ai

GLM 5.3 Flash climbs to ~4.62T OpenRouter weekly (#8) beside GLM 5.2 at ~3.11T (#10); utility floor keeps thickening.

Why the score moved

Positioning moved from 31 to 33. Z.ai is still the utility floor of the international column: cheap tokens, little brand, no preference crown. Last desk’s +3 priced dual GLM rows entering the weekly top ten. This week the new Flash SKU accelerated.

What argued for a raise: GLM 5.3 Flash processed about 4.62T tokens (#8) on OpenRouter’s weekly board, up from last desk’s ~3.3T debut, while GLM 5.2 still holds about 3.11T (#10) 1.

What argued against a bigger raise: brand fragmentation (Zhipu/GLM/Z.ai) and no preference or coding-community story remain unchanged 2. Why +2/+6. Routed-utility persistence with rising Flash mass; heat follows the climb.

  1. DataOpenRouter model rankings

    Weekly: GLM 5.3 Flash ~4.62T (#8); GLM 5.2 ~3.11T (#10).

  2. DataAI Wars desk changelog

    No preference/Arena override; raise is accelerating dual-SKU utility.

Signals: OpenRouter weekly — GLM 5.3 Flash ~4.62T (#8) + GLM 5.2 ~3.11T (#10). Open weight: yes. Brand string still fragmented (Zhipu/GLM/Z.ai).

Positioning 33 (+2 from 31): dual top-ten utility is no longer a debut — Flash volume is accelerating. Still lowest international set on brand/preference, but the floor is clearly thicker.

Heat 72 (+6 from 66): strongest international heat move of the week after Xiaomi’s spike cooled. Cross-pressure: still no agent community tape; DeepSeek/Xiaomi own the narrative brands.

About this board

What you’re looking at, and how often it moves.

What is AI Wars?
AI Wars is Sonar Mag’s permanent scoreboard for the AI industry. It combines desk assessments of major labs with live signals from LMSYS Chatbot Arena, OpenRouter volume, coding-agent Reddit communities, open-source GitHub stars, US App Store Productivity ranks, public changelog velocity, and Polymarket prediction markets.
How are the lab rankings decided?
US and international labs are scored by the desk on positioning (strategic seat) and heat (near-term momentum), each from 0 to 100. Rank within each region is derived from the sum of those scores, and each company has a full analysis below the board.
How often does AI Wars update?
Arena, OpenRouter, Reddit visitor estimates, GitHub stars, App Store ranks, changelog feeds, and Polymarket odds refresh on page load with short CDN caching. Positioning and heat are a weekly desk pass: every company on the board gets its week’s news read carefully (product drops, funding, distribution deals, usage slips, open-weight releases), then scores, blurbs, and full analyses are updated where the footing actually moved. Each regional column shows when that side was last reviewed.

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